Pay-TV's Gloomy Future?

Much has been made about Business Insider Editor-in-Chief Henry Blodget's proclamation that TV will soon to follow the doomed path of newspapers... And like Blodget, we don't mean to sound alarmist, but new figures from Digital TV Research are forcing pay-TV circles to take heed.

According to the research firm, pay-TV revenues across all North America are set to peak next year, before gradually declining by billions of dollars over the next 5 years. Digital TV says with ARPU being driven down by cable and telco operators converting subscribers to dual- or triple-play packages, overall revenues will fall by $2.6B to hit $88.2B in 2017.

Researchers also say pay-TV penetration has nearly reached saturation levels in the U.S. and Canada, leaving operators to fight amongst themselves for new subs. Without any - or very little - room for improvement in penetration rates, the firm says pay-TV subscriber counts across all platforms will only increase by 9M from now until 2017.

"Digital penetration was 86% at the end of 2011 and will reach 100% by 2016," says Digital TV's Simon Murray in his latest report. "Of the 25 million digital homes to be added between 2011 and 2017, 13 million will come from cable, 7 million from IPTV, and 4 million from DTH."

Other interesting findings from the report include:

• DTH will become the largest pay-TV platform in 2017 ($40.7B), overtaking cable ($40B). DTH revenue will increase by $3B between 2011 and 2017, while cable revs during the same period will fall by $8B.

• Cable penetration will actually slip from 50.3% last year to 47.1% in 2017, while cable HHs will remain relatively flat at 65M. (The firm's figures say total cable HHs can stay flat despite the drop in penetration due to analog-to-digital conversions.) Meanwhile, DTH HHs will increase by 3M by 2017 to reach ~40M.

• Due to aggressive pricing plans, the firm says IPTV HHs will grow by 73% between to reach 15.8M - or 11.5% of all TV HHs. IPTV revenues will hit $7.6B by 2017. •

Cox's Internet Safety Report

June... home to the summer solstice, Go Skateboarding Day, and Juneteenth in Texas. It's also Internet Safety Month, and Cox has teamed up with the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children for a survey on how parents are doing to keep their Tweens safe online.

According to the report, 95% of tweens (10 to 13-year-olds) are using mobile devices to access the internet despite "a lack of guidelines and controls on these devices that can leave (them) vulnerable." The Cox survey says 68% of parents are monitoring their child's internet behavior on mobiles, but only 17% actually use basic parental control features (e.g. content filters) often included on smartphones, tablets and gaming consoles.

Parents (and their tweens) acknowledged that fewer controls exist on mobile devices and gaming units than computers, but many aren't using the tools available to them because they don't know how they work. The survey said 83% of tweens use a gaming console to access the internet at home, but only 51% of parents monitor that internet activity.

For the parents out there, here's a couple more stats to consider:

• 44% of tweens admitted they’ve watched something online that their parents wouldn’t approve of (28% of parents were aware); and 34% have lied to parents about what they’ve done online (only 18% were aware).
 
• 42% of tweens have received a personal message from someone they didn’t know (22% of parents were aware); and 17% have received an email or online message with pictures or words that made them feel uncomfortable (only 7% of parents were aware). Further, 12% have already been bullied by someone online. •

Etc.: A New Kind of Phone Bill – Rentrak in China – TGIF

Retrans: DISH subs have lost access to 14 channels in six states in its latest dispute, this time with Hoak Media. DISH says Hoak wants a 200% increase in rates. Hoak – despite earlier reports to the contrary – says pulling its stations has nothing to do with the Ad-Hopper. Stations affected by the dispute include: KREX and KFQX in Grand Junction, Colo.; KFYR in Minot and KVLY and KXJB in Fargo, N.D.; WMBB in Panama City, Fla.; KNOP and KIIT in North Platte and KHAS in Lincoln, Neb.; KSFY in Sioux Falls, S.D.; and KNOE and KAQY in Monroe and KALB and NALB in Alexandria, La. --- Time Warner Cable settled its retrans dispute with Block in Louisville for Fox-affiliate WDRB.

Strategy: Univision is teaming up with multiplatform Latino entertainment company Nuevo Mall to cross-promote the network's stars and celebrities on Nuevo's social communities.

Service: Comcast is launching a new service that will enable subscribers to pay their monthly bills by photos. Huh? Yup - use your smartphone to take a picture of the bill and your credit card... send it in... repeat next month. Details at the company blog.

TVE: HBO Go launched on Amazon's Kindle Fire.

Deals: Rentrak is creating an international JV with Chinese research company Sinomonitor called Sinotrak. This month the Chinese gov't awarded the joint-venture a license to measure all forms of video screens across the country, making Sinotrak the first company to be approved for census-level TV viewing data in China.

Footprint: Comcast launched Xfinity Home service in Santa Barbara County and Pittsburgh. --- Verizon Wireless expanded its 4G LTE network in Sharon, Bedford, and Indiana, PA; Lake of the Ozarks, Jefferson City, and Springfield (and surrounding areas), MO; and across Central Texas.

$$$: Verizon's board declared a quarterly dividend of $.50 per share payable on Aug. 1. --- Chinese PPV & VOD platform YOU OnDemand rang this morning's opening bell of the NASDAQ to mark its listing on the market.

Research: TV v. Movies: Which is generating more revenue? --- The Atlantic is running a piece saying "if you're in the mobile advertising business, your rocket ship takes off in 5... 4... 3..." Click here.

Tech: Netgear launched its NeoTV Pro HD Streaming Player this week featuring wireless display capabilities. The box streams content from Netflix, Hulu Plus, Vudu, YouTube, Pandora and others in full 1080p with surround sound and retails for $70.

Programming: Logo is premiering the UK's hit dark-comedy series "Misfits" on Thursday, July 19. Press for the show asks viewers: "If you were suddenly granted superpowers, would you save the world or just get laid?" --- Jimmy Fallon and 50 Cent are scheduled to make an appearance on QVC's "Anything Goes" show Tuesday at 10pm (ET). Huh?

Education: We all try to stay as informed as possible, but in case you're not quite up to speed on IPv6, check out WashPost's insightful article and what the new internet standard means for all of us.  --- And, just a reminder, but you can check out video archives on this year's Cable Show on-demand.

Over, Up, & Under: Kudelski's SmarDTV and connected TV solutions provdier Wiztivi unveiled a collaboration that successfully combines CI Plus and HbbTV to enable VOD for cable networks. SmarDTV says it intends to launch the first CI Plus SmarCAM with cable VOD later this year. --- Telefonica UK and Vodafone UK are creating a JV that will own all radio transmission facilities operated by both companies, creating a single network of ~18.5K sites. --- EchoStar is showing off its Ultra Slim Box - an Android-powered, IP STB - at ANGA Cable 2012 in Cologne. --- Sky redesigned its HD EPG.

People: President Obama nominated FCC Commissioner Mignon Clyburn for a second term. NCTA CEO Michael Powell applauded the news. --- Charter said Steve Apodaca, president of operations, is leaving the company to be replaced by COO John Bickham. --- Robert Hayes has been named executive VP, digital media for NBC. --- The CTHRA appointed two new members to its board of directors: Catherine Houser, EVP of HR at Viacom Media Networks, and Jo O'Brien, SVP of HR at CNBC.

TGIF: We've all seen the funny "auto-tune" videos where usually someone goofy is spoofed by song. But check out what PBS has done (or, the artist they hired) to good ol' Mr. Rogers. Hat tip to The Wrap for the link. Please don't defund PBS.

--- Catch today's media market news in The Evening BRIDGE. •